基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究*

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明:外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。     

环境监测实验室空气中汞污染与防治

采用冷原子吸收法,使用便携式测汞仪对实验室空气中汞的浓度进行测定,监测结果表明,环境监测实验室空气中汞的污染较为严重,主要来源于COD、氨氮、大气中氨及汞样品测定时含汞试剂及汞标液的使用和含汞废液的排放。根据对监测结果的评价和分析提出了相应的防治措施,提醒实验室的管理及分析人员,要增强环境保护意识,加强实验室的管理,减少含汞及其它有毒废液的排放,改善实验室的环境空气质量,保护分析人员的身体健康。     

贵州省土壤环境质量监测存在问题及对策

结合贵州省近年来土壤环境质量监测实践,从土壤环境监测方案制定、评价标准、常规监测和应急监测能力建设等方面分析了贵州省土壤环境质量监测存在的问题,指出加强土壤常规监测和土壤应急监测能力的相关举措,提出科学制定土壤环境监测方案、提高监测报告可用性等方面的建议。     

固定污染源废气监测工况核查重点

在多年废气固定污染源监测工作经验的基础上,对装置和设施的生产运行状态（即工况）影响固定污染源监测结果质量的因素进行了分析和总结,提出了相关的工况核查重点及方法。     

A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

基于物联网的水环境监测及分析系统

基于物联网的水环境监测及分析系统集传感器、测控、通信、计算机应用、地理信息系统等技术为一体,实现了"测得准、传得快、说得清、管得好"的总体目标,可为水环境管理、水功能区管理、污染物减排和总量控制提供科学依据。系统可方便接入其他业务系统,实现资源共享,提高环保部门环境监察、管理能力,增强应对突发性污染事故快速反应能力,满足环境监测和环境管理的业务需求。     

VBA在环境监测数据统计中的应用

VBA是Office系列软件内嵌的通用编程语言,用于定制和扩展Office的功能。将VBA应用在环境监测数据统计中,并以功能区噪声等效声级日期筛选为例,通过编制宏代码,方便快捷地实现功能区噪声数据的自动筛选。     

松花江佳木斯江段水环境质量变化状况及趋势分析研究

根据近十年来的松花江佳木斯江段水环境质量监测数据,介绍了松花江佳木斯江段水质现状,探讨了松花江佳木斯江段水质的主要污染物,从理化指标对松花江佳木斯江段水环境质量变化趋势进行了评价分析,分析结果表明：主要污染指标高锰酸盐指数、化学需氧量、氨氮、生化需氧量浓度值均有不同幅度的下降,2005年水质状况为轻度污染,2013年已达到良好水平.水环境质量呈规律性的逐年提高和改善,确保了松花江更好地休养生息.     

基于生产工艺的水泥工业项目竣工环保验收监测重点分析研究

基于水泥工业的生产工艺特点,说明新型干法生产时代,水泥生产的主要产污环节及特征污染物,并分析其对生态环境的影响和危害,表明该行业属高能耗、高污染的产能过剩行业.根据建设项目竣工环境保护验收规范要求和工作实践经验,结合生产工艺、特征污染物和污染物总量控制等要求,从废水监测、废气监测、噪声监测等方面阐明水泥行业项目竣工环保验收的侧重点和注意事项,并指出污染防治设施、总量控制等几方面应重点关注的问题.